We had recently communicated on the problems encountered on the major port congestion on the east coast of the United States.
Today it is the west coast ports that are in dire straits. With increasing demand day after day, limited capacity, cancellations of stopovers and changes in the rotation of services, this will create a congestion in American ports that could be unprecedented. Beyond the ports of Long Beach or Oakland, significant repercussions are being felt on Seattle and Vancouver.
To the ports of Long Beach or Oakland, freight levels for 40 dry equivalents should exceed 6,000 Usd very quickly to probably reach even higher levels in May and June. Indeed, covid-19 still very present on American soil is not helping the situation at all. The personnel of transport and handling companies is severely affected and the workforce is more than reduced in certain geographical areas.
Other factors, which are the basis of the positive news, are likely to intensify and worsen the situation, namely:
- The suspension of the "Trump" tax * for the next 4 months which will push importers of American wines to relaunch their orders in order to generate stock because there is no certainty that this tax will not be applied again after the deadline ad.
- The 1900 billion stimulus plan mainly intended for American households to revive consumption. If this is well ratified on March 10, 2021, we should see in the coming weeks an explosion in consumption and again massive imports from Asia and Europe which will only worsen an already very critical situation. .
Congestion in all American ports, as well as in Europe, once again suggests intense pressure on maritime transport prices, and on the availability of space and equipment.
We remain on our initial indicators that we should not see any improvements until the end of June 2021. However, with the new elements appearing day after day, it is very likely that we will have to wait until the month of September to regain normality.
* 25% tax on French wine imports